2020 Tour Championship odds: Surprising PGA picks, FedEx Cup Playoffs predictions from advanced model

With two wins and six top-10 performances during the 2019-20 PGA Tour season, Dustin Johnson enters the 2020 Tour Championship ranked first in the FedEx Cup standings. That means he’ll begin the 2020 Tour Championship at 10-under par, while Jon Rahm, who outlasted Johnson in a playoff last week at the BMW Championship, will begin this week’s event two-shots off the lead. This is the second year of the Tour Championship’s staggered start format and the action gets underway on Friday from East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Ga.

William Hill lists Johnson as the 8-5 favorite in the 2020 Tour Championship odds. He’s one of 30 golfers in the 2020 Tour Championship field who made the cut this week. Johnson is followed closely by Rahm (14-5) and Justin Thomas (6-1) on the 2020 Tour Championship odds board. Before locking in your 2020 Tour Championship picks or entering any PGA DFS tournaments on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel, be sure to see the latest golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

SportsLine’s prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been on fire since the return of the PGA Tour in June. In fact, it’s up almost $9,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament. 

McClure finished profitable yet again at the Northern Trust two weeks ago, nailing three of his best bets, including a 7-1 top-five bet on Daniel Berger. After hitting a top-five bet (12-1) on Doc Redman at the Wyndham Championship, McClure finished up over $700 in that event. 

The model was all over Justin Thomas winning the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational at 12-1. At the 3M Open, McClure’s best bets returned a whopping $1,100 as he nailed a top-five pick on Max Homa (12-1) and a top-20 pick on Talor Gooch (4-1). Those are just some of his big recent wins. 

In all, the advanced computer model has nailed a whopping six majors entering the weekend, including two of the last four. Anyone who has followed its golf picks has seen massive returns returns. 

Now that the 2020 Tour Championship field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

The model’s top 2020 Tour Championship predictions 

One huge shocker the model is calling for at the Tour Championship 2020: Webb Simpson, one of the top William Hill favorites at 12-1, stumbles and doesn’t even crack the top five. Simpson ranks fourth in the 2020 FedEx Cup standings and will start at 6-under, four shots off the lead. He’s finished T6 or better in the first two playoff events, but his game has been up and down overall since the restart.

While he won the RBC Heritage, he’s also missed two cuts and settled for a disappointing T37 at the PGA Championship. And he’s not the same player off the tee as some of the other top contenders. He averages just 296.3 yards per drive, ranking 108th on tour. He’s also 84th in strokes gained off the tee. With extremely short golf odds this week and a loaded field to contend with, the model has identified Simpson as one of the 2020 Tour Championship favorites to fade. 

Another surprise: Rory McIlroy, a 22-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. McIlroy enters this week’s event hitting the ball extremely well off the tee, averaging 314.2 yards per drive this season. 

The 31-year-old ranks sixth on the PGA Tour in scoring average (69.229), which has helped him secure a top-10 finish six times this season. McIlroy also ranks inside the top-15 in strokes gained: tee-to-green (1.369), strokes gained: off-the-tee (.714) and strokes gained: approach the green (.574). McIlroy is a proven winner on the PGA Tour and he’s one of the top value picks that should be all over your radar this week in your 2020 Tour Championship bets. 

How to make 2020 Tour Championship picks

Also, the model is targeting four other golfers with odds of 22-1 or higher to make a strong run at the title, including a massive long shot higher than 80-1. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big. You can only see them here.

So who wins the 2020 Tour Championship? And which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2020 Tour Championship leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed six golf majors and is up almost $9,000 since the restart, and find out. 

2020 Tour Championship odds (via William Hill)

Dustin Johnson 8-5
Jon Rahm 14-5
Justin Thomas 6-1
Webb Simpson 12-1
Collin Morikawa 20-1
Bryson DeChambeau 22-1

Rory McIlroy 22-1

Daniel Berger 25-1

Xander Schauffele 25-1

Hideki Matsuyama 28-1

Tony Finau 50-1

Patrick Reed 55-1

Harris English 55-1

Brendon Todd 80-1

Sung-Jae Im 90-1

Scottie Scheffler 90-1

Tyrrell Hatton 100-1

Joaquin Niemann 125-1

Kevin Kisner 150-1

Viktor Hovland 150-1

Sebastian Munoz 150-1

Billy Horschel 200-1

Abraham Anser 250-1

Ryan Palmer 300-1

Kevin Na 300-1

Lanto Griffin 300-1

Cameron Champ 400-1

Cameron Smith 400-1

Mackenzie Hughes 400-1

Marc Leishman 500-1


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