I will be the first to admit, the BMW Championship left a lot to be desired.
It felt as if we handicapped the players correctly, but the putts just didn’t fall our way. Paul Casey holing out for eagle on his 72nd hole did not help our cause to say the least, but that is the way of life betting on golf the way that I do…and now the way that you do. Alas, as the emotional Bill Belichick would say, we are onto Cincinnati (actually Atlanta), for the 2020 Tour Championship.
With a field of 30 golfers heading to the Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club, I am under the inclination that the head-to-head matchup market will be hotter than Zoom ($ZM) stock. The staggered start will leave golf bettors everywhere wondering where the best place is to find value in this tournament. Is someone starting at -4 really going to be able to chase down the likes of Dustin Johnson (-10), Jon Rahm (-8), or Justin Thomas (-7)? Will betting on the tournament without the FedEx Cup handicap be a popular route to navigate this bumpy terrain? Many questions like this that will be posed, but you know where to find me, and that is in the matchup market.
The beauty of the matchup market this week is we don’t need to decide whether or not to bet this tournament with the FedEx Cup handicap. Most matchups are between players who will be starting from the same place, and if not, then a 1 stroke difference between them. That right there is an opportunity that you should be able to exploit, if presented. As for the ones below, the players listed start at the same starting point, and the wager will be graded based on final FedEx Cup rank. I will be looking at players who are riding form into the Tour Championship and have had past success on Donald Ross courses. Think of players who drive it straight, are lights out with their irons, eat up Par 4’s, take advantage of Par 5’s, and make their living on Bermuda grass greens. Sounds easy right?
Billy Horschel (-115) vs. Viktor Hovland (-105)
Good course history, tee-to-green game trending, and a Bermuda grass master. Am I describing myself? No, I would be describing Billy Horschel. Billy Ho loves East Lake GC and I would not be surprised to see him make a huge leap up the leaderboard as the week progresses. As for Vik Vinegar, his game has really flipped since the Workday Charity Open. Known for his tee-to-green prowess, it has actually been the putter that has been carrying the young Norwegian as of late. And lemme tell ya it hasn’t been carrying him far, carding only one top-20 in his last 5 starts. Give me the horse for the course over the rookie.
Ryan Palmer (-110) vs. Kevin Na (-110)
Mr. Palmer continues to get disrespected in the betting markets. East Lake GC rewards good tee-to-green play and that’s exactly what Palmer does. Gaining in his last 5 starts, Palmer now gets a go on Bermuda greens, his best putting surface. And guess where Kevin Na struggles? You guessed it, tee-to-green. I could see Na struggling finding the short grass off the tee, putting himself in some uncomfortable situations, and relying too heavily on the putter. Palmer is the play.
Daniel Berger (+110) vs. Bryson DeChambeau (-130)
I truthfully do not understand this line. Am I being punk’d? Where are the cameras? Ashton!!! Like I have said a hundred times by now, Bryson can’t hit a fairway, he can’t hit an iron, and he can’t chip. He’s probably too concerned about his next viral moment out on the course to really focus on the task at hand. As for the Bergermeister MeisterBerger he has been phenomenal dating all the way back to the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Yeah, it has been that long. I could point out a stat saying this is why he’ll be successful this week, but in all honesty, it’s everything. The book missed on this one, but luckily we won’t.
Harris English (+135) vs. Hideki Matsuyama (-155)
This line is an overreaction to last week if you ask me. The only thing missing from Harris “Please sir, I want some more,” English’s year is a win. I am not saying it is going to happen this week, but he has been the model of consistency from the go. Yes, the irons were bad last week, but it’s not going to play nearly as difficult and I expect him to bounce back. Hideki was finally in contention, but the way he got there is nothing to be excited about. He has been doing most of his damage around the greens, and that is something that will not be rewarded at East Lake.
Brendon Todd (+140) vs. Patrick Reed (-160)
As I tweeted out earlier in the week, I like the University of Georgia boys to find some success at East Lake GC. The ToddFather would fall under that category. He splits fairways and he drains putts. Will the irons come around? I hope so, but he has proven he doesn’t need to be great with them to put himself into contention. I wrote about Reed and his loving wife in my previous article and my feelings still hold true. There is too much going on in his game to pick a guy like him. Inconsistency and poor course history are enough for me to side against him.
5-way Parlay: +4134
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