For those of you new to the program, welcome, and behold with your eyes the most beautiful thing in sports, my weekly PGA Tour betting card.
Now, most touts, Twitter personalities, and golf media all do the same thing when it comes to betting on golf. Outright winners, Top 10’s, Top 20’s, long shots, “BEST BETS.” It’s redundant, it’s boring, and honestly, they all pick the same players. Some people enjoy it, and sure, many of the writers are solid at handicapping tournaments, but it just seems lazy. Instead what I do, is focus solely in the head-to-head matchup market.
It’s a wonderful place where you can fade players you think will play bad that week, and wager on players who you think will play well. I make my bed in this market because I bet through a legitimate Sportsbook (William Hill), and as such, am able to parlay these wagers to generate odds similar to that of an outright winner. I should warn you, this style is not for the faint of heart. The sweats are as intense as the sprint back home after a spicy Mexican dinner, but what is life without a little adventure?
Adam Scott (-120) over Paul Casey (+100)
Those who know me, know one thing. Paul Casey is my nemesis. No matter how hard I try, I can not figure this guy out, but I think I may have finally gotten a read on him. Casey has lost on approach in his last two starts, and gained on the greens in his last three. Typically, it’s the complete opposite for him. This week, we’re back on greens that are poa annua, bluegrass – Casey’s worst surface – and his irons are trending in the wrong direction. As for Mr. GQ, Adam Scott, the tee-to-green game was there last week in Boston, and if it was not for an abysmal third round putting performance, I think more people would have noticed. In contrast to the Brit, Scott’s best work with the broomstick comes on poa annua. All that factored together is enough for me to pick the Aussie in this one.
Xander Schauffele (-120) over Rory McIlroy (+100)
Welp, looks like I have to put my money where my mouth is. If you read my other article this week, you already know my feelings towards Rory. Uncertainty around his motivation, up and down tee-to-green game, and lack of finesse around and on the greens are enough for me to bet against him here. As for X gon’ give it to ya, he has been the quietest, big name golfer since the restart. Having no missed cuts, and Top-25 finishes in seven of his eight starts, Xander’s game has been nothing but consistent. I like Xander a lot this week, as is with most weeks, but especially against a golfer who might be lacking some motivation and form.
Justin Thomas (-110) over Bryson DeChambeau (-110)
As with Rory, Bryson is a no-go for me this week, as discussed in my previous article. The irons stink, and although off-the-tee he leads the Tour, it is just not enough for me. If he putts lights out this week, this one might be a loser, but I never like to bank on a guy who has to rely so much on the flat stick. As for cardigan wearing Justin Thomas, his tee-to-green game has been dy-no-mite, arguably the best on Tour, and his putter has been holding him back. We get JT back on his best putting surface, and I can’t imagine he loses strokes on the greens for a fourth straight week. All we need this week is for JT to roll in a few putts and we should be in good shape. If not, our money will be gone with the wind, much like the rest of his hair in five to ten years.
Tiger Woods (+110) over Patrick Cantlay (-130)
Tiger, Tiger Woods y’all. That’s it, that’s my analysis. In all seriousness, Tiger’s Sunday round at the Northern Trust Open was very, very promising. For the week, he gained off the tee and in approach, losing on and around the greens. He’s going to bring the ball-striking this week, and needing a solid finish to qualify for the Tour Championship, I bet he brings his putting stroke too. On the other side of the coin, Patrick Cantlay has been super ehhh. He’s had nothing really going for him since the restart, but yet he remains towards the top of the betting markets. Sure, he could snag a top-20 finish here, I wouldn’t put it past him, but if you’re giving me Tiger plus money, nine times out of ten, I am going to take it.
Tony Finau (+110) over Jason Day (-130)
Talk about two guys who STUNK last week. If you look closer though, Tony really wasn’t THAT bad. It was a typical Tony missed cut…gain off the tee, gain on approach, lose a million strokes putting. On the other hand, touted throughout the industry like the second coming of Christ, Jason Day burned many bridges with his performance at TPC Boston. I’m sure many will go back to him, thinking it’s a great opportunity to buy low on a player who was playing some great golf. Not me. Not this time. I just have a sense that this past month was an anomaly. He got by with some great short game and popped off with his irons during a couple tournaments, and even played his home course twice. I have more confidence in Tony (gulp) to bounce back in this spot than I do in the Day-man aaahhh, fighter of the night man.
5-way Parlay: +2729
Feel free to follow along throughout the week for any live picks via Twitter @AmateurStatus
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